“We will witness slow down of growth pace of lending”
Loans in foreign currency granted to population continued the similar trend of last years, with a 9.4% growth compared to August. As compared to September 2007, loans in foreign currency rose 86.7% up to 55.03% billion lei, equivalent to 14.7 billion euros, according to September report of NBR.
In the summer months, annual growth pace of non-governmental loan slowed down 13%, from 63.4% in June, up to 55.8% in July and 50.4% in August.
The slowdown of lending pace was triggered by the enforcement of NBR regulation, effective as of this month.
“Keeping a high growth pace of lending in September is not very surprising, as more clients wanted to profit this month with from the old lending regulations, which were still effective at that time,” said Florin Eugen Sinca, financial analyst at Banca Comerciala Romana.
However, analysts forecast a 35-40% decrease in lending by yearend.
The new lending conditions, as well as monetary market conditions are two of the reasons of a stagnation of the pace in 2009,” Since added.
We will certainly witness a decrease of the lending pace and is likely to turn negative in the following months, maybe October, or November. In 2009, the annual lending pace will drop down to nearly 20-30%”, said Dragos Cabat (photo) chairman of Chartered Financial Analyst.
50.5% in September compared to 50.4% in August is more a stagnation rather than a growth, considering that August is a month of vacations, when banks don’t function at the maximum capacity, and clients don’t apply for so many loans, while September is a full capacity month, Cabat added.
At the end of September, loans granted to population and companies amounted to 194.17 billion lei, equivalent of 52 billion lei, namely a 5.7% increase in nominal terms compared to previous month. In real terms, non-government loan rose 5.3% from previous month.
In September clients of the banks preferred credits in foreign currencies, marking a 8.7% advance from previous month, up to 108.86 billion lei or 29.2 billion euros.
Growth pace of credits in lei was inferior to that in foreign currency. Thus, credits in lei rose at 2.2% pace up to 85.3 billion lei or 22.8 billion euros.
Corporate loans in lei rose 2.4% from August and 40% from September last year, up to 44.3 billion lei, the equivalent of 11.9 million euros. Credits in national currency granted to population in September advanced 1.9% from August and 32.3% from September last year, up to 41.02 billion lei, or 11 billion euros.
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