“For now on, we will witness more severe effects of financial crisis”
The new data have been embedded in the budget blueprint for 2009.
CNP’s projections come after International Monetary Fund announced 4-5% economic growth forecast next year.
For this year, CNP maintained projection for gross domestic product at 505 billion lei, equivalent of 137.6 billion euros, at an average exchange rate of 3.67% lei/euro for 2008 and economic growth of 9.1%.
For next year, the Commission forecasts 578.5 billion lei GDP, namely 160.7 billion euros, calculated at an average exchange rate of 3.60 lei/euro, rate announced by the Government took into consideration for the next year’s budget blueprint.
However, specialists are not so optimistic regarding the 6% threshold of next year’s GDP. “I think CNP has an optimistic viewpoint. I see economic growth at 4% next year and this in positive economic context. Until now, the economy has been shielded, but from now on, we will witness more severe effects of the financial crisis”, said Bogdan Baltazar, financial consultant.
Ionut Dumitru, senior economist with Raiffeisen Bank Romania stated: “I estimate a 5% economic growth next year, with the risk of even a lower growth, as the international financial crisis will influence the costs of funding and the real economy even more. The risks are extremely high, and this is why we consider a 4-5% economic growth a sensational one next year, considering the current global financial crisis”.
Other specialists exclude the 6% growth forecast of GDP in Romania in the current financial status, estimating lower values. “We think that next year the economic growth will be merely 3.5-4%, but it can go even lower, pending on the extent of financial crisis damage in European Union member states “, said Dragos Cabat, chairman of CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).
Moreover, for the following years, CNP maintained economic growth projections to 6.3% for 2010, 6.2% for 2011 and 6% for 2012 and 2013.
Therefore, Romania’s GDP would climb to 658.5 billion lei, namely 188.1 billion euros, at 3.50 lei/euro exchange rate in 2010, 742 billion lei, equivalent of 218.2 billion euros calculated at 3.40 lei/euro rate in 2011, 818.7 billion lei, equivalent of 247.4 billion euros at 3.35 lei/euro in 2012 and 918.1 billion lei, equivalent of 278.2 billion euros at 3.30 lei/euro exchange rate in 2013, according to data made public by CNP.
The new forecast report released by CNP provides lower values compared to preliminary report, when the commission estimated a 948.7 billion lei GDP in Romania in 2013.
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