UBS analysts consider that investors are currently selling all shares of companies with exposures in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) without making any differences. This approach is wrong when it comes to Erste shares because the lender's perspectives are considered better compared to other banks operating in the region.
Erste's credit to deposit ratio on the CEE markets is less than 1 and, moreover, is possible that the Austrian bank benefits from state financing, which provides a safety net for 2009.
The same analysts estimate Erste Bank will obtain a net profit of 279 million euros this year, slightly up from the anticipated 255 million euros for 2008, despite negative outlook regarding a climb in the volume of non-profitable credits of banks in the CEE.
UBS expects the nonprofitable credit rate to reach 8 percent in the region by year-end and to rise to 10 percent in 2010, after it stood at 3 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2008.
But Erste could see a positive trend of its net profit, which could reach 487 million euros in 2010.
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