The BSE stocks that have been rallying since early March may have further to go, as the technical analysis indicators show, but at a lighter sharpness, experts polled by Wall-Street say.
“We are experiencing a 5-month range and it is less likely for the trendline to be broken now, and this is why we think the stocks at BSE may rally even further. We could lag around current levels by the end of this month, on multiple dividend-related interests that could keep stocks from falling. The brunt of the growth potential is washed up, as BET-FI’s peak stands at 15,000 basis points”, Andrei Ciubotaru, broker at Tradeville (the new Vanguard) told Wall-Street.
Marcel Murgoci, operating director at Estinvest shares the same opinion in that the technical analysis indicates a further rally for BSE stocks, and stressed that investors should not rely solely on this indicator, as the fundamental analysis does not support the uptrend.
The indicators provided by technical analysis are not relevant to Bucharest Stock Exchange in default of a stock market cycle, with poor fundamentals and tight connection with international stock markets.
“We are experiencing a buyout spree fuelled by panic. Investors buy shares only to catch the bullish wave. It is hard to predict the next momentum reversal, as the stock market is tightly linked to external markets”, said Paul Brendea (photo), analyst at Prime Transaction.
April, under the sign of Q1 financial results
At the end of April, issuers are expected to announce their first-quarter financial results that will indicate the extent of the damage caused by the global financial crisis.
If the BSE companies’ profits were low, or even null, we would see a sharp reversal of the stock market trend, regardless to the indicators of the technical analysis.
On a short term, it is expected a high volatility and when first-quarter results start piling up, bears will regain upper hand, Paul Brendea said.
“We should expect a wait-and-see mode, Morgoci commented, this month probably, but for the moment, there is nothing new on the horizon. Issuers’ financial reports will start overflowing the market, and observers see no happy ending. It remains to be seen how this will impact the stock prices”, he continued.
BET-FI climbs to all-time high
BET-FI rose by as much as 14.77% through the end of yesterday’s trading session, going up to 15,326.32 bp, biggest increase so far this year and since the first trading day of the index, on a bullish market that left only six issuers on the red.
The liquidity of BSE regulated market increased up to 44.60 mln lei (10.66 mln euros), 77% more than prior session.
BET index that gauges the performance of ten most liquid stocks on BSE rose 5.56% while composite BET-C went 4.33% up.
BET-XT that monitors the evolution of 25 most liquid stocks climbed 8.68% and BET-NG gained 2.10%.
BRD SocGen stocks (BRD) attracted the biggest liquidity of 7.93 mln lei, and advanced 3.73% up to 6.95 lei/share, while FIC5 – Oltenia shares increased by 14.62%, up to 0.745 lei.
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