Despite the outstanding performance of the Bucharest Stock Exchange in the last couple of months, brokers remain reluctant in confirming a long-term uptrend. The signals sent out from the macroeconomy are still unstable, and as we have seen in the last two years, a more or less surprising turnaround is very possible.
Two months ago, when the stock market was still lagging in a resting point, analysts were recommending investors to wait for turnaround signals and a gradual and prudent approach.
At that moment, the recommendations proved to be reliable because in February, the market sank 16%.
“It proved to be a reliable theory to buy when nobody else believed in a bull market (In the last week of February, the market was in complete distress, but a good moment to buy for those with a stony heart), but also when is given a trigger to the bulls, only to capture a slice of the rally. But I repeat, this applies only to experienced investors, because it is a sensitive period, when anything can happen”, Paul Brendea (photo), analyst at Prime Transaction told Wall-Street.
The March-April rallies were surprising responses to the massive declines in January and February, he continued. The market is not expected to bounce back now.
Gabriel Aldea, broker at Intercapital Invest says the good performance of stocks over the last two months may be a kickoff for a new uptrend and keeps recommendations for long-term buy.
“If we consider that many of the companies listed at BSE are fundamentally undepriced, I see no reason why to remove the long-term buy recommendations for investors with long-term picture. On the other hand, the market delivered two consecutive months of gains, and now leaves room to corrections, so the progressive acquisitions remain in my opinion the wisest option for investors,” said Gabriel Aldea.
What sectors worth the attention of investors
Rares Sofariu, research and development director at KD Capital Management says these gains came as natural response to the bottom low values.
“Current market conditions, macroeconomic evolution tells me that in these stormy times, we have to adopt a more cautious approach to our portfolio, and hence a reliable strategy to include its volatility, macroeconomic news, sector-wide analyses, analysis of issuer and above all, investors’ sentiment”, Sofariu told Wall-Street.
Two types of investors are emerging in crisis, he said, those who accumulate and speculators. The current market conditions hold up these operations, both on accumulation and speculative moves.
As he noted, a risky stock should be clearly defined. “Until two months ago, FICs were risky stocks, our recommendations included companies whose activities continue to outperform even in crisis”.
In the event of a trend reversal, the best returns will be yielded by financials, as he the last couple of months had shown us.
“Water, gas and electric utilities usually fare well in a downtrend, but underperform in a growing market. However, if we consider the experience of mature capital markets, we see that the in turning points, the average returns yielded by utilities and energy stocks are roughly similar to returns of financial stocks on wide volatility.”
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