European Commission projects a 4% contraction of Romanian economy and economic stagnation in 2010, in its spring revision, EC’s view being roughly similar to IMF’s and National Prognosis Commission’s.
As for the number of jobless and unemployment rate, the National Prognosis Commission has revised upwards its projections for the coming years. Thus for the end of 2009, CNP expects the number of unemployed to stand at 620,000 versus 505,000 as it had projected in January. The unemployment rate would hike to 6.8% from 4.4% a year earlier.
European Commission sees a contraction of Romania’s CA deficit down to 7.4% of GDP this year from 12.3% in 2008, on sharp reduction of foreign trade.
For 2010, EC expects the payment balance to keep contracting, down to 6.1% of gross domestic product.
The CA deficit projection for 2009 is slightly below the figures previously announced by International Monetary Fund and National Prognosis Commission, of 7.5% of GDP.
Imports of goods and services are expected to fall 17.3% from 2008 and 0.5% in 2010, while Romania’s exports would shrink 16.9% in 2009 and increase mildly by 0.6%.
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