Thus, within a month, the currency exchange rate will stand around 4.25 lei/euro, only to go up to 4.30 lei/euro in the following three months.
“In the short term, any negative news is likely to be of minimal concern for the local currency given the NBR’s determination to keep the exchange rate stable”, reads ING report.
The NBR is likely to cut its key rate by 50bp to 9% at its 30 June rate-setting meeting, but ING expects only limited impact on the leu as the move is largely priced in.
Moreover, another cut may follow in August.
The minimum quotations for the leu will be reached in mid year, as ING predicts. The maximum currency exchange rate is expected to stay in the range of 4.5 lei/euro at year-end.
“The risks for a RON sell-off towards year-end and/or early 2010 are quite elevated. The first quarterly review under the IMF programme is due by 15 September and poses no real risks (based on June targets). Yet, risks are higher for December and March evaluations as issues may arise with both the budget gap and inflation”, ING said.
Nevertheless, currency exchange rates will resume the downward trend in early 2010, and within 12 months, the leu will climb to 4.15 lei/euro.
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