Romanian economy will contract by 8.5% this year, and is likely to return to a modest positive growth of 0.5% in 2010, said the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook, IMF predicting the largest output gains in Poland and Turkey of all European emerging countries.
However, the recession is expected to continue in the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia), where the GDP may drop 17.4% this year, and 3.7% in 2010.
Poland is the only country in the region for which IMF predicts 1% real growth in GDP this year, and 2.2% growth in 2010. As for Turkey, the International Monetary Fund expects 3.7% economic growth next year after 6.5% decline in 2009.
At the first review under stand-by arrangement with Romania, IMF agreed on a GDP contraction of 8-8.5% this year, following to return to positive growth in 2010.
The forecasts have been revised from 4.1% GDP contraction issued in spring this year.
The National Prognosis Commission predicted a GDP contraction of 7.7% in its autumn outlook made public late last week, based on an average performance of agriculture sector.
IMF said inflation rates could hover near 5.5% this year, following to drop to 3.6% in 2010. Last year’s inflation rate stood at 7.8%. NBR expects a 4.3% inflation rate for the end of the year.
Article comments "IMF: Romania to return to positive growth in 2010"
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