This is the fifth successive quarter of decline in Gross Domestic Product from previous quarter, but the rate fell in third quarter this year to the lowest since Q3 2008.
Romania’s economy slipped into the negative territory in third quarter 2008 at a 0.1% quarterly rate. Contraction deepened further into the following quarters by 2.8% in Q4 2008 and by 4.6% in Q1 2009 only to show the first signs of recovery with 1.1% decline rate in Q2.
For the first nine months of 2009, GDP contraction was 7.4% lower than six-month 7.6% rate.
On November 6, IMF’s mission chief in Romania, Jeffrey Franks said Romania was at the end of the freefall, in terms of gross domestic product.
“Third-quarter numbers may be worse than for second quarter. In the last three months, the economy will remain in the negative territory, but it will show modest improvement, and will probably be near its trough. We may see a flat economic growth in first quarter 2010 followed by a gradual increase in GDP in second and third quarter”, said Franks.
IMF has also raised its economic growth forecast for year-end, from 8.5% to 7.5% and sees a recovery in 2010. However, GDP growth will be modest next year.
In its autumn report, the National Prognosis Commission has lifted its Q3 GDP contraction forecasts, from 8.5% to 8.7%.
Forecasts suggest a quarterly seasonally-adjusted GDP decline of 1.2% for the three months ending December 31, up from 1%.
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