“The country’s targets for this year – 1-1.5% GDP and a lower jobless rate than a year earlier – are based on far-fetched, unrealistic assumptions, given the low visibility on GDP growth levers”, said Victor Safta (photo), director X-Trade Brokers Romania.

Romania recorded a contraction in Gross Domestic Product in the last quarter of 2009, in light of a weakening labor market that still looms on the horizon.

“The global recession map will be clearer at the end of second quarter, indicating not only which countries will have climbed out of recession but also the rate at which they will have recovered. As things appear now, Romania has few chances to be included in the list of countries that emerged from recession”, Safta added.

Director of XTB Romania says the performance of trade and consumer lending in March and April will be the first indicators that will show how close are certain countries to exit recession and how fast they are recovering.

“Retail trade and consumer lending are relevant indicators as they reflect or factor in a set of different indicators, such as confidence in job stability, buying power”, XTB director pointed out.