The growth of Romanian economy will be driven by foreign demand, which is why the National Bank of Romania intervenes in the forex market to keep the national currency at a medium level, and avoid a sharp appreciation.
An exports-driven economic recovery will increase Romania's reliance on the euro area's economic outlook, Radu Craciun continued. "Romania will lag EU nations in economic recovery".
"More and more recent forecasts indicate a return to growth at year-end. I expect the GDP reading to come in at -0.5% or 1% at the end of the year", Radu Craciun said.
The first quarter is not relevant to the full-year economic performance, he added, and the economic situation of Romania will largely depend on global markets.
"Earlier predictions suggested a return to positive territory as soon as this quarter, but now, not even the forecasts for the quarter are plausible", Craciun stressed.
Eureko's Investment Director anticipates a greater pressure on the appreciation of the national currency in summer and a depreciation trend at the end of the year.
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