Top telecom predictions for 2010

While smartphones will continue to thrive, the most important battle to be waged this year is leadership in mobile search, although this may fall outside the radar screens of both analysts and the media.

Revenues from mobile search are expected to come in at a modest one – two billion Dollars, but by the end of 2010, search is likely to be one of the five most-used smartphone applications, along with voice, messaging, calendar, and browsing.

By 2011, smartphone sales are forecast to exceed all PC sales (mobile and desktop combined), with 400 million shipments. This should encourage PC manufacturers to diversify into smartphones.

By 2012, smartphone shipments could pass the half-billion mark. In the same year, search is expected to generate the bulk of the 7.2 billion Dollars mobile advertising market.

Also, some aspects of mobile search may be superior to search via PC, by the end of 2010. For example, mobile search could not only help you choose where to go for dinner, or buy a gift, but also guide you there through integrated GPS navigation, turn-by-turn or even step-by-step. The value of this function to advertisers and the providers of such services may prove lucrative.

Separately, a critical area of differentiation for users this year is likely to be the user interface. Developers need to offer a variety of user interfaces for each context. A range of technologies would need to be integrated – voice recognition for those in charge of vehicles, for instance, or visual search in instances where the search is driven by selection of images for those on foot. Existing technologies such as touch are likely to undergo constant iteration and improvement.