10. Spain

10. SpainSpain came in at No 10, with credit default swap prices at 208.5 basis points, on May 4, according to data from Bespoke Investment.

At the end of last year, Spain’s CDS was at 113.5 basis points, which points to an increase in default risk to 83.7%.

In the first quarter this year, Spain’s jobless rate climbed to a record 20.5%, the highest in the 16-nation euro area. In fourth quarter 2009, Spain’s economy fell 0.1%.

In the list compiled by CMA Data Vision in April, Spain was not in the top 10 list of countries with the highest default rate.

9. Bulgaria

9. BulgariaCompared to a month earlier, Bulgaria joined the list of ten countries with the highest default rate, with 220.9 basis points CDS.

Year-to-date, CDS prices dropped 4%.

The Bulgarian government adopted a set of austerity measures aimed at bringing public finances on the mend and cut expenditures, as state revenues fell short of estimates since the beginning of the year.

The nation’s budget deficit came in at 3.7% at the end of the trailing year, overshooting the 1.9% deficit target.

8. Vietnam

8. VietnamVietnam’s CDS rose 7.7% year-to-date, to 249 basis points. In the first quarter Latvia was on the eight spot.

At the end of last year, Vietnam CDS was at 231.1 basis points.

7. Lebanon

7. LebanonLebanon CDS was at 249.9 basis points on May 4.

The nation CDS grew 7.3% from 274.8 basis points at the end of 2009.

In the April list compiled by CMA Vision, Lebanon was not included in top 10 countries with the highest default risk.

6. Portugal

6. PortugalPortugal’s deficit problems increased the country’s sovereign debt default risk by 288% year-to-date, the biggest of all countries reviewed by Bespoke.

On May 4, Portugal CDS was at 355.4 basis points, from only 91.7% at the end of 2009.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from ‘AA’ to ‘AA-‘ citing significant fiscal shock and structural macroeconomic weakness.

Portugal’s CDS rose sharply at the end of April, after Greece’s ratings were cut to junk.

5. Iceland

5. IcelandIceland’s sovereign debt default risk increased in April to 375.4 basis points. However, the country’s situation remains worrisome despite the 9% drop year-to-date.

In early April, Moody’s Ratings cut Iceland’s outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, as uncertainty surrounding the country's ability to borrow abroad mounts amid the ongoing Icesave bank dispute.

Last year, the country’s GDP contracted by 6.5%, the biggest ever economic contraction recorded by Iceland.

4. Dubai

4. DubaiDubai’s sovereign debt estimated at $170 billion secured the emirate the fourth position in the list of countries with the highest default risk, the country CDS being at 420.9 basis points, down from 447.0 basis points at the end of 2009.

Dubai’s debt problems sent shockwaves across all markets around the world, and caused a sharp depreciation of Islamic bonds, after saying it would default on a part of its debt.

3. Greece

3. GreeceGreece’s sovereign debt default risk increased sharply on a monthly basis, the country CDS soaring 160.20% year to date, from 283.4 basis points at December 31, 2009 to 737.3 basis points.

After a round of talks, euro area countries and the International Monetary Fund agreed on a €110 billion bailout package for the country.



2. Argentina

2. ArgentinaArgentina kept its second spot in the list, with a CDS at 866.5 points.

At the end of last year, Argentina CDS was at 915.9 basis points, 5.4% higher than now.

The Government in Argentina denied the country was in recession last year, despite the private sector’s estimates of a 4% economic contraction in 2009.

1. Venezuela

1. VenezuelaVenezuela remains the country with the highest risk of defaulting on its sovereign debt, topping the list with 943.4 basis points CDS.

Year-to-date, the country recorded the biggest decline in CDS prices, namely 14.8%.

Venezuela is facing a high inflation rate that came in at 25% at the end of 2009.