Pessimistic views on economic sentiment for Romania

The positive trend of the economic sentiment indicator for Romania from May has not carried forward into June, slipping into the red, despite the strengthening of the economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe.
The indicator dropped by 13.9 points, where it now stands with minus 2.2 points in the negative area, according to ZEW/Erste Group Bank survey on sentiment indicator for Central and Eastern Europe.

The majority of survey participants expect an unchanged economic environment in Romania.
In terms of exchange rate development, no unified picture has emerged from the results of the June survey.

Gross Domestic Product could dive into the negative camp in the second and third quarter of the year, although there will not be a two-digit decline. As Lucian Croitoru, advisor to the NBR Governor said recently, the lowest point of recession is expected in July-August.

In May, the indicator capturing the financial experts' business forecast for Romania turned positive in May, climbing 26.1 points from April, to 11.7 points.

The ZEW/Erste Group Bank sentiment indicator for the CEE region has risen by 14.4 points to 20.4 points in June. The CEE indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, with support from the Erste Group Bank, Vienna.

The sentiment indicator for the Eurozone has risen by 3.6 points and now stands at 16.7 points.

The current economic environment is, however, assessed more cautiously by the surveyed experts

The experts polled expect a growing inflation risk to accompany the cyclical recovery in the CEE region. Despite this, the majority of survey participants foresee a declining inflation rate in the CEE region.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

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