What the autumn will bring for the Bucharest Stock Exchange

After a dramatic 2008, the bullish performance of the stock market throughout the first eight months took everybody by surprise. The traditional seasonal patterns of were left out and the stock exchange ended with 27.41% appreciation of BET-C index. Specialists polled by Wall-Street expect short-lived market trends, conditioned by the international stock markets.

Historic highs from the spring lows

From February-March lows BET index skyrocketed 130% and BET-FI 180%. The international markets had a similar performance, with indexes going up to 2003-2005 levels. S&P 500 climbed 52% from this year’s lows while DAX jumped 50%, according to an Intercapital Invest report.

“130-180% increase can be classified as historical to the modern-day stock market. Between these yields and the nation’s economic framework, there is no connection. The bullish trend was largely generated by the positive evolution of foreign stock markets, supported by hopes of global economic recovery”, said Andreea Gheorghe (photo), Intercapital’s analysis department manager.

The relation between the local stock market and foreign markets was visible and was based on the principle that stabilization followed by an economic recovery in developed economies was favorable on a medium and long term to emerging economies, which depend on the economic environment in these developed states and by the capital inflow from them, she said.

“We had a less usual summer, but the general context is different, so the traditional seasonal stock-market patterns don’t apply any longer”, said Paul Brendea, analyst at Prime Transaction.

The early summer was marked by sky high appreciations followed by a waiting mode and dried out cash flow in first half of July.

“As the market was waiting for the companies’ second-quarter financial results, coupled with adjustment of equity holding limit in financial investment companies, the cash flow recovered sending the stock market to new all-time highs in August”, said Adrian Duna, analyst at KD Capital Management.

Year-to-date, BET index increased by 46.4%, BET-C climbed 27.41%, BET-FI jumped 50% while BET-NG soared 55%.

On international markets, the trend was the same over the past eight months. Thus, S&P 500 index gained 14% in 2009, Warsaw’s WIG climbed 40% while at Sofia the general index soared 28.6%, slightly up from BSE’s BET-C.

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