“Still we suggest that NBR has probably realized that a strong currency returns no immediate gains, and moreover the central bank could leave currency more room to fall versus euro, as the gap between wages and productivity didn’t adjust. (…) The observation is even more important in the current pressures exerted by the salary claims from trade unions”, reads the report.

ING said the central bank had spent around €4.5 bln from the end of September 2008 to head off sharp movements of exchange rates. The group doesn’t exclude the possibility that the National Bank of Romania has intervened in the market to buy euro.

“This assumption must not be excluded, given the recent appreciation of currencies in the region against euro on an improvement of confidence globally, while leu had an opposite performance (…) A new attempt to devalue the local currency may be needed and before a new long and medium term rally kicks off”, ING said.