CNP: Romania will come out of recession in second quarter 2010

Romanian economy is likely to contract by 7.7% in 2009, following to nudge back into positive territory in second quarter next year to 1% above Q1 2010 level, according to the forecasts of the National Prognosis Commission in its fall report.

The Commission predicts the country is likely to come out of recession in the three months to June 2010, after seven successive quarters of decline. For next year, CNP expects GDP to grow 0.5%, in 2011 by 2.4%, in 2012 by 3.7%, in 2013 by 4.4% and in 2014 by 5.2%, the preliminary medium-term prognosis report shows.

The institution also said the economy would bounce back in third quarter 2010 with a GDP growth of 0.8% YoY.

GDP likely to shrink 8.5% in Q3 YoY

In third quarter this year the Gross Domestic Product is likely to drop 1% QoQ and 8.5% YoY, CNP says. In the fourth quarter 2009, the institution expects the GDP to stand 0.8% below quarter-ago level and at 7% below year-ago level.

The economy is likely to nosedive further into 2010, with 0.2% decline in Q1 compared to previous quarter and 3.5% compared to first quarter 2009. The following three months will mark the exit from the recession, even though the Gross Domestic Product will remain on the negative side compared to second quarter 2009, at 1.2% below.

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