CNP keeps economic contraction view

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) said it maintained its full-year forecasts for a Gross Domestic Product contraction of 7.7%, as well as for an economic growth of 0.5% in 2010, in its final autumn report.

However, the institution has cut its forecasts for GDP’s nominal value for 2009 from 498.96 billion lei in its preliminary autumn report to 497.32 billion lei.

For 2010, forecasts have been revised slightly from 526.53 billion lei to 525.1 billion lei.

The National Prognosis Commission said the current account deficit was likely to narrow sharply in the remainder of the year, to 4.6% of GDP, followed by a mild increase in 2010 to 4.8% of GDP only to hark back to 4.7% in 2011.

The institution forecasts an unemployment rate of 7.6% this year, followed by a slight easing to 6.2% in 2010, calculated according to Romanian standards.

After the meeting with International Monetary Fund, employers’ organizations said the institution’s predictions on GDP suggested an 8-8.5% contraction for 2009 and 1% growth for 2010.

Fitch forecasts Romania’s GDP growth will turn positive in 2010 to around 2% after the 7.5% contraction projected for this year, the rating agency said recently in its “Emerging Europe Sovereign Review: 2009”.

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