1. Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone net tablets arrive

The segment lying between the smallest available laptop and largest phone has historically been a technological dead zone. 2010 might bring the solution to this issue, with the launch of Net tablets, or netTabs.

NetTabs, connected portable devices will be purchased by tens of millions of people in 2010. While it is difficult to forecast sales of devices whose specifications are unknown, some analysts estimate 12-month sales from launch of over 1 billion Dollars.

These devices will aim to offer an appealing balance of form and function. Priced between 400 and 800 Dollars, they are likely to weigh less than 500 grams and measure about 20 cm by 12 cm by 2.5 cm. They are expected to include cellular and WiFi access.

These devices have an advantage over smartphones—which are small for watching videos or web browsing—and notebooks, netbooks, and ultra-thin PCs, which are too heavy or expensive. However, Existing PC and smartphone makers are unlikely to be threatened by netTabs, as they will be addressing a specific need that is currently largely unfulfilled.

The likes of Apple and Microsoft teaming up with Hewlett-Packard, are anticipated to launch their products early this year, following news out of the Consumer Electronics Show in January 2010.

Custom-designed tablets are also likely to be released by start-ups, some existing phone and PC makers, netbook leaders, and various smaller manufacturers using open-source phone operating systems.

2. Moores Law is alive and well in 2010

In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore made a prediction, popularly known as Moore's Law, stating that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years. And Intel has kept that pace for nearly 40 years.

The traditional ability of the global semiconductor industry to double the number of transistors in a square centimeter of silicon every 18 to 24 months will not likely come to a screeching halt.

In fact, it may not even slow down. But that increased density is unlikely to be used to produce larger or more computationally powerful chips. Instead, it could permit the production of “good enough” chips that use less electricity, cost less money, or are smaller.

With current growth in mobile computers coming in the form of lower-cost laptops and ultra low-cost netbooks, the next few generations of PC chips are likely going to be optimized for price, with some consideration given to power consumption, and almost no focus on performance. Other strong-selling devices, such as smartphones and possibly tablets, are likely to be optimized primarily for power consumption, with some attention paid to price. Again, performance may be almost irrelevant.

3. Cloud computing: more than hype, but less than hyper

3. Cloud computing: more than hype, but less than hyperThe cloud computing concept involves the transformation of traditional data centers into super-computers used by external client-users.

Examples of cloud computing include personal applications (often advertising-supported) like Gmail, Hotmail, Facebook and Twitter; consumer applications such as Google, eBay and Amazon; and business applications such as Saleforce.com and NetSuite.

In 2010, cloud computing is likely to grow much faster than most other technology verticals, but will still fail to reach the heights its more enthusiastic supporters have suggested.

For reliability reasons, adoption of this concept is most likely to occur in markets with well-developed, secure and reliable IT infrastructure. North America and Western Europe are currently the biggest users of cloud, and this is likely to persist for at least the short term. In the medium term, the developing world will likely catch up as cloud solutions are ideal for markets with little installed traditional hardware and software bases.

Cloud computing solutions providers need to focus on two things: realizing that consumer applications are likely the better near-term revenue opportunity, and that their key challenge in enterprise and government adoption is addressing the security and reliability concerns.

4. Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC

4. Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PCVirtual Desktop Infrastructure, a computing model based on “thin” or stateless clients, centralized applications, and processing power, will be taken far more seriously than in previous years.

In 2010, an unprecedented confluence of enterprise priorities such as cost-reduction, energy efficiency, security, and personal productivity are likely to collectively make the case for thin client strong enough for significant adoption.

The majority of medium to large corporations are likely to consider the case for shifting to Virtual Desktop Infrastructure, this year. Over one million seats may go thin client, with the largest deployments involving tens of thousands of seats. By 2015, thin client may reach 10 percent of all enterprise client devices.

5. IT procurement stands on its head

5. IT procurement stands on its head2010 will likely see many enterprise technology and telecommunications purchasing decisions based on the preferences of individual employees, rather than traditional IT department criteria.

In the past, technology and telecommunications hardware and software manufacturers have targeted their latest products for the enterprise market, and specifically the gate-keeping IT department. Enterprises tended to be early adopters, sophisticated users, and those willing to pay premium prices for premium products. A few years later, the solutions could be sold to the consumer market where typically less demanding users paid lower prices. The manufacturer made lower margins, but these were offset by larger volumes.

This traditional business model is now being reversed. Large chip companies are using their most advanced manufacturing techniques for devices aimed at the consumer, not the enterprise market.

What’s more, new enterprise software applications for internal and external social networking were first implemented and validated by the consumer market.

The most obvious probable effect of a more consumer-centric procurement process is to make the traditional sales approach much more difficult — or different, at least. IT departments may have to become more flexible as well. The future of many enterprise computing and telecom tools will likely be one where the line between work and personal lives is blurred.


6. CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows

6. CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadowsDTT TMT predicts mixed performance for the CleanTech sector in 2010. After a near-collapse in the stock market value of the entire industry during the recent economic crisis, government stimulus and investor interest have catalyzed a sharp recovery. However, not all areas are sharing equally in the bounty.

The solar technology subsector will likely be outperformed by the broader CleanTech industry. Prices of solar equipment, tools, and raw materials will probably continue to be depressed due to global overcapacity and insufficient growth in demand.


7. From gray to green: technology reinvents cement

7. From gray to green: technology reinvents cementThroughout 2010, technology’s contribution to carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction is likely to include initiatives such as electric cars, more efficient airplanes, and leaner data centers. Yet there is another, largely overlooked industrial segment that may deliver an equally meritorious benefit: cement.

Advances in technology may soon lead to the world’s first carbon-negative cement plant that could, in the medium term, deliver a significant (at least five percent) reduction in global CO2 emissions.