6 Mai 2009
Anghel, BCR: NBR is likely to cut lending rate to 9% by yearend
NBR will cut the benchmark lending rate down to 9% by the end of the year, from 10%, as inflation rates will soar to 5.4% topping central bank’s projections, said BCR’s senior economist, Lucian Anghel.
By the end of 2010, the lending rate will probably stay in the range of 7.5% and for end-2011 the analyst sees the benchmark rate around 6.75%.
Inflation rates could hike to 5.4% this year, thus breaching the upper limit of the interval projected by National Bank of Romania who forecasts 3.5% rate for the end of 2009.
“In order to reach the 4.5% limit, we should have a 0.2% monthly inflation, and the likelihood for that to happen is not so great”, said Anghel.
At the same time, the currency exchange rates could oscillate around 4.30 lei/euro, and for the end of 2010 around 4.20. In 2011, the local currency could bounce back by the end of the year up to 3.90 lei/euro, reads the quarterly macroeconomic analysis of BCR.
In March, the annual inflation rate fell by less than analysts had expected, down to 6.71% from 6.89% a month earlier, following the rising prices of non-food products, especially of tobacco, INS informed.
NBR’s board will hold the fourth rate-setting meeting of the year on Wednesday when the final quarterly inflation report will be passed.
The majority of the analysts expect NBR to leave benchmark rate at 10% or to cut it by 0.25% at the most in a bid to battle economic slowdown. Economists say NBR will keep its liquidity adjustment measures running and will keep the required reserve ratio at its current level.
Inflation rates could hike to 5.4% this year, thus breaching the upper limit of the interval projected by National Bank of Romania who forecasts 3.5% rate for the end of 2009.
“In order to reach the 4.5% limit, we should have a 0.2% monthly inflation, and the likelihood for that to happen is not so great”, said Anghel.
At the same time, the currency exchange rates could oscillate around 4.30 lei/euro, and for the end of 2010 around 4.20. In 2011, the local currency could bounce back by the end of the year up to 3.90 lei/euro, reads the quarterly macroeconomic analysis of BCR.
In March, the annual inflation rate fell by less than analysts had expected, down to 6.71% from 6.89% a month earlier, following the rising prices of non-food products, especially of tobacco, INS informed.
NBR’s board will hold the fourth rate-setting meeting of the year on Wednesday when the final quarterly inflation report will be passed.
The majority of the analysts expect NBR to leave benchmark rate at 10% or to cut it by 0.25% at the most in a bid to battle economic slowdown. Economists say NBR will keep its liquidity adjustment measures running and will keep the required reserve ratio at its current level.