7 Mai 2009
ING: IMF has produced errors in calculating short-term sovereign debt
Analysts of the Dutch-based ING have identified a set of errors in International Monetary Fund’s data related to short-term sovereign debts of countries in the region, by overestimating data for Poland and Czech Republic.
The errors refer to the short-term sovereign debt and currency reserve ratio. IMF announced a 236% ratio for Czech instead of 89%, 210% for Estonia, instead of 132% and 208% for Ukraine instead of 116%.
In Poland, the data are largely overestimated, ING analysts deeming Czech Republic as one of the safest countries in Europe.
“We have criticized the reports for Czech and Poland, which we deem as one of the safest countries in Europe, as the IMF analyses herald major financial problems. Even this morning, I’ve heard from IMF that their calculations were faulty and that they would soon release the correct numbers.
Thus, IMF would revise its analysis for Czech, Estonia and Ukraine. For the moment, the International Monetary Fund said it would review the ratio calculated for Poland, and that it didn’t expect any reduction in case of Latvia.
“For Romania, Hungary and Latvia, the IMF is already running assistance programs, meaning that 90% of CEE’s GDP is safe or safer due to IMF support. This is why the issues affecting the area are not as large as everybody is concerned, and the Austrian and international banks exposed to these countries will be affected merely by loan defaults”, ING said.
If IMF’s data were accurate, only 31% of the area’s GDP was “safe” as analysts say.
In Poland, the data are largely overestimated, ING analysts deeming Czech Republic as one of the safest countries in Europe.
“We have criticized the reports for Czech and Poland, which we deem as one of the safest countries in Europe, as the IMF analyses herald major financial problems. Even this morning, I’ve heard from IMF that their calculations were faulty and that they would soon release the correct numbers.
Thus, IMF would revise its analysis for Czech, Estonia and Ukraine. For the moment, the International Monetary Fund said it would review the ratio calculated for Poland, and that it didn’t expect any reduction in case of Latvia.
“For Romania, Hungary and Latvia, the IMF is already running assistance programs, meaning that 90% of CEE’s GDP is safe or safer due to IMF support. This is why the issues affecting the area are not as large as everybody is concerned, and the Austrian and international banks exposed to these countries will be affected merely by loan defaults”, ING said.
If IMF’s data were accurate, only 31% of the area’s GDP was “safe” as analysts say.