11 Mai 2009
Prognosis: Market still stuck in the muddle
Investors and experts are not convinced that the market has clearly tapped an upward trend, the latest Prognosis survey found.
Investors sentiment indicator for BET-FI marked has risen to all-time highs. 57% of the surveyed investors and 53% respectively see a rebound within a month for BET-FI and BET indices. Experts say the market would likely stabilize around values lower than current ones, before it rises again.
Around 62% of the respondents see a 51%increase of BET-FI in the coming month while 51% say BET would take a similar path within the same timescale.
Long-term uncertainty sentiment
On a 6-month time horizon, only 45% of the surveyed expect a bullish path for BET-FI.
“We need a confirmation, before we can say for sure that a new clear uptrend is on sight. The short and long-term uncertainty ca ne emphasized by another coincidence: both for experts and investors, the percentage of those saying they are more optimistic about the prospects for economic growth and those who see a standstill around current ranges are roughly identical”, Prognosis specialists say.
Similarly, the long-term positive perspectives are by far inferior to those on a short-run, with the majority of investors and experts polled saying the market is not yet on a clear uptrend.
In April, the tracker marked a record share of the surveyed with a neither optimistic nor pessimistic view, and despite the recent bullish rally, investors don’t seem to have any high fears, for the first time in a year.
“Nevertheless, the level of optimism stays within the normal limits. In order to confirm our negative vision, the share of investors with improved sentiment should be higher. Our hypothesis of market overheating is not reiterated by investors’ confidence index”, Prognosis analysts say.
Around 62% of the respondents see a 51%increase of BET-FI in the coming month while 51% say BET would take a similar path within the same timescale.
Long-term uncertainty sentiment
On a 6-month time horizon, only 45% of the surveyed expect a bullish path for BET-FI.
“We need a confirmation, before we can say for sure that a new clear uptrend is on sight. The short and long-term uncertainty ca ne emphasized by another coincidence: both for experts and investors, the percentage of those saying they are more optimistic about the prospects for economic growth and those who see a standstill around current ranges are roughly identical”, Prognosis specialists say.
Similarly, the long-term positive perspectives are by far inferior to those on a short-run, with the majority of investors and experts polled saying the market is not yet on a clear uptrend.
In April, the tracker marked a record share of the surveyed with a neither optimistic nor pessimistic view, and despite the recent bullish rally, investors don’t seem to have any high fears, for the first time in a year.
“Nevertheless, the level of optimism stays within the normal limits. In order to confirm our negative vision, the share of investors with improved sentiment should be higher. Our hypothesis of market overheating is not reiterated by investors’ confidence index”, Prognosis analysts say.