19 August 2009
Top macroeconomic indicators of Romania
Romania’s economy is experiencing a severe recession and despite the signs that the worldwide crisis was drawing to a close, the country registered a deep contraction. Wall-Street lists the top 12 most important macroeconomic indicators to gage first-half economic activity.
Imports - 17.9 bn euros (-36.6%)
The key drivers behind the sharp decline were the devaluation of the local currency against euro as well as the reduction of imported goods demand.
Exports - 13.5 billion euros (-20.3%)
The country’s trade gap narrowed to 4.34 billion euros in H1 2009, down 6.858 billion euros from a year earlier.
Foreign direct investments - 2.89 billion euros (-43%)
The drastic decline in FDI flowing into Romania was largely due to a reduction of foreign investors’ confidence in the country’s economic performance, after two rating agency have cut the nation’s rating to junk or non-investment grade.
In the first half this year, foreign direct investments of non-residents in Romania have fully financed the current account gap.
Current account gap - 2.37 billion euros (-73.3%)
Before crisis erupted, the CA deficit was the economy’s no 1 threat as it was nearing 14% share of GDP. At the end of first quarter this year, it hardly exceeded 2% of GDP.
Budget gap - 3.4 bn euros (-2.9% of GDP)
The latter IMF projections show a 7.3% weight of budget gap in the country’s this year GDP.
Public debt - 43 billion euros (+25%)
The amount includes both internal and foreign public debt as well as the IMF-led rescue package.
The government debt increased sharply over the past year, in order to fill the budget gap.
Exchange rates - 15.45% up YoY
The highest level of the exchange rates of the period under review was hit in January 22, when National Bank of Romania posted a benchmark rate of 4.3127 lei/euro.
Industrial output - 10.8%
Industry is one of the most important branches of the economy, and analysts say the sector will be the first to show signs of improvement.
Inflation - 5.06% in July
Romania recorded the highest annual inflation rate in European Union, as the EU’s inflation rate stood at 0.2%. In June, the annual inflation rate was 5.86%.
Jobless rate - 6.3% in July
The number of jobless stood at 572,562 at the end of July after adding 24,000 in one month only.
Average earnings - 325 euros
Compared to first half last year, when the average earnings was 333 euros (1,221 lei), the monthly pay fell 2.2% when expressed in euro, due to the devaluation of the leu against the single European currency.
Gross Domestic Product - down 7.6% in H1
For this year, the Ministry of Finance expects the Gross Domestic Product to stay in the range of 117.27 bn euros. For 2010, forecasts indicate a moderate growth of 0.5%-1%.