17 Decembrie 2009
Raiffeisen sees leu bullish in 2010
Raiffeisen Bank Romania said there was no reason why the leu would remain weak against a basket of currencies next year, and as soon as the political crisis eases the local currency could gain strength up to 4.15 against euro, the bank said in a report.
Raiffeisen added that the leu remained stable, even if the political woes boosted investors’ risk aversion. The bank sees an exchange rate of 4.30lei/euro in March and a gradual decline to 4.25lei/euro in June and to 4.20 lei/euro in September.
“Our forecasts rely on the assumption that the political deadlock will persist for the remainder of the year until a new government is sworn-in. Should a new government is formed sooner, the leu could gain more than we expect. If the government proposed by PD-L fails to gain the parliamentary vote of confidence, the leu could depreciate on a short-term”, the bank said.
On December 11, ING said it expected an exchange rate of 4.40lei/euro in mid 2010, followed by a recovery of the national currency to 4.25lei/euro at the end of the year.
Raiffeisen added that the National Bank of Romania was likely to keep key rate at current level in the next rate-setting session scheduled for January 5.
“Our basic scenario points to an upkeep of key rate at the next NBR rate-setting session in early January. The excise and political uncertainty-driven pressure over the inflation will be the key factors that could determine the central bank to maintain benchmark lending rate at current level”.
“Our forecasts rely on the assumption that the political deadlock will persist for the remainder of the year until a new government is sworn-in. Should a new government is formed sooner, the leu could gain more than we expect. If the government proposed by PD-L fails to gain the parliamentary vote of confidence, the leu could depreciate on a short-term”, the bank said.
On December 11, ING said it expected an exchange rate of 4.40lei/euro in mid 2010, followed by a recovery of the national currency to 4.25lei/euro at the end of the year.
Raiffeisen added that the National Bank of Romania was likely to keep key rate at current level in the next rate-setting session scheduled for January 5.
“Our basic scenario points to an upkeep of key rate at the next NBR rate-setting session in early January. The excise and political uncertainty-driven pressure over the inflation will be the key factors that could determine the central bank to maintain benchmark lending rate at current level”.