31 Mai 2010
CNP revises economic growth forecasts, Romanias GDP remains in the negative camp
It’s official: Romanian economy will remain lackluster in 2010, according to the revised data from the National Prognosis Commission that the Government will present on Monday in the Parliament. Romania’s GDP is expected to stay 0.5% in the negative territory in 2011 and turn positive as late as in 2011 when the commission expects a mere 0.1% growth.
The economic projects that will be presented on Monday in the Parliament are excerpts from the Spring Economic Forecasts of the National Prognosis Commission and establish the fiscal-budget framework for 2011-2012 based on the commitments assumed in the Fiscal Responsibility Law, as part of the IMF conditions under the loan deal.
In last year fall, CNP had predicted a 1-2% economic growth in 2010.
As for the fiscal framework for the 2011-2012 period, the Government has committed to narrow the general budget deficit from 7.4% of GDP to 6.8% in 2010, to 4.4% in 2011, 3.0% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.
Also, public sector wages in the general budget expressed in percents in GDP are estimated at 7.3% in 2011 and 7.1% in 2012.
Recently, the Minister of Public Finances, Sebastian Vladescu issued a disappointing economic forecast for the remainder of the year, dampening hopes of a return of the GDP in the positive territory, and warned that “within three, six months or even a year, it could get worse”.
Revised outlook
In last year fall, CNP had predicted a 1-2% economic growth in 2010.
As for the fiscal framework for the 2011-2012 period, the Government has committed to narrow the general budget deficit from 7.4% of GDP to 6.8% in 2010, to 4.4% in 2011, 3.0% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.
Also, public sector wages in the general budget expressed in percents in GDP are estimated at 7.3% in 2011 and 7.1% in 2012.
Recently, the Minister of Public Finances, Sebastian Vladescu issued a disappointing economic forecast for the remainder of the year, dampening hopes of a return of the GDP in the positive territory, and warned that “within three, six months or even a year, it could get worse”.
Revised outlook
- Raiffeisen has revised its 2010 economic growth outlook on Romania downwards, from 1% to flat, on negative impact of the austerity plan put in place by the Government. However, a negative economic growth is not ruled out. For 2011, Raiffeisen estimates an economic growth of 3.5%.
- EBRD said Romania will record a near-zero economic growth this year, but predicts 3% advance in 2011.
- The International Monetary Fund has also revised its growth outlook on Romania downwards, from 1.3% to 0% or even below 0, but the economy should turn positive for the remainder of the year.