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ING - weaker earnings for banks in emerging countries

ING predicts weaker earnings for banks in emerging countries in Europe and Middle East, while many banks would probably have to recapitalize. However, BRD-SocGen is one of the banks that would be less affected.

ING analysts say the banks in former Soviet Union block, Israel, and Austria will face mounting risks, whereas the slowdown of asset growth will not necessarily be more acute in these states than in other financial markets.

ING deems Poland-based Komercni Banka and Romanian-based BRD-SocGen together with other Turkish banks less hit and recommends investors to broaden exposure on the banks in emerging countries.

ING said that after concluding stress tests on capitals and earnings, the banks with low margins and high indebtedness level as in Israel and Austria were the most vulnerable.

Nevertheless, the banks with high capital reserves, as in former Soviet Union, could experience the biggest asset-quality related problems, ING said.

“The credit quality surfaced as the biggest risk factor, and given the lending uncertainties, medium-term asset growth fears are also well-founded”, reads ING report that reduced profit projections by roughly 28%.

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