9 Noiembrie 2009
Top 10 economic forecasts for 2010
Although the Romanian economy could contract by as much as 8% this year, analysts expect the country to do better in 2010 and achieve positive growth, however modest that may be. Wall-Street highlights the ten most important forecasts for the Romanian GDP in the year to come.
10. Capital Economics: -0.5%
“It is early and worrying to talk about an economic recovery. The outlook has improved, but numerous risks point to a further negative GDP. In our view, the economy will contract by 0.5% in 2010”, said Neil Shearing, emerging markets economist.
9. Banca Comerciala Romana: +0.2%
Romania suffered an economic contraction of 8.8% in second quarter this year and 7.6% in the first six months on a yearly basis after hefty growth rates in 2008.
Read more on BCR's forecasts.
8. National Prognosis Commission: +0.5%
However, the institution has cut its forecasts for GDP’s nominal value for 2009 from 498.96 billion lei in its preliminary autumn report to 497.32 billion lei.For 2010, forecasts have been revised slightly from 526.53 billion lei to 525.1 billion lei.
7. IMF and EC: +0.5%
In case of Romania, IMF said after the first review under the aid deal, the country’s GDP would decline by 8-8.5% this year, and would turn positive in 2010. IMF has revised its full-year economic forecasts for Romania from -4.1% for 2009.
European Commission has also revised its forecasts for Romania bringing them in line with IMF’s estimates, according to the autumn forecasts. EC is thus expecting an economic contraction of 8% in 2009 and an economic growth of 0.5% in 2010.
6. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development: +1%
EBRD has also revised its full-year forecasts for 2009 to 8% from a solid growth of 7.1% a year earlier.
5. Moody's ratings: +1.2%
Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, Kenneth Orchard said the country’s economic contraction would most likely be in the range of 8.9%, while for 2010, the analyst sees a mild growth of 1.2%.
Read more about Moody's projections for Romania ...
4. Alpha Bank: +1.5%
According to the group, Romania will suffer the steepest economic contraction of all countries in the region, but compared to the euro zone in 2010, the country will undergo the fastest recovery, with an increase in Gross Domestic Product.
3. ING Bank: +1.6%
ING says the growth expected for 2010 should have the same magnitude as the 2009 collapse.
2. Fitch Ratings: +2%
Fitch Ratings projects Romania’s general government debt at 30.1% of GDP this year, at a wide margin from 21.5% last year. For 2010, the agency expects 34.2% government debt. Fitch said the country’s Gross Domestic Product was likely to grow by 4% in 2011.
1. Mugur Isarescu's projections
“If we consider data on factory output, the economy has already gone up and is on track for a complete recovery. In industry, we started from -12% and now we are at -6%, as data are released with two months delay, and GDP data with even a longer delay”, said Mugur Isarescu (photo), the governor of National Bank of Romania.