NBR: Countries with a consistent economic growth, prone to a larger adjustment over the next few years

National Bank of Romania says countries with a rapid pace of filling gaps between them and the euro area will face mounting risks of large losses, above the average of the euro area and the region, which will wipe out a major share of the gains related to the real convergence.

This risk should be considered, as according to recent predictions, countries recording constant economic growth in the past, are prone to a larger adjustment over the next years, according to the central bank’s annual report on financial stability.

After a consistent economic growth in 2008, Romania’s economic activity has severely contracted (first quarter of 2009 from prior-year period). The trend was roughly similar across Central and Eastern Europe.

As NBR noted, the economic contraction experienced by Romania bears higher risks compared to other countries, due to the narrow level of GDP per capita. Therefore, the risk of a major economic weakening may lead to divestments and increase in unemployment rates which puts Romania’s attempt of narrowing gaps with EU at risk.

In this context, attracting European funds and pursuing major public investments are essential to Romania, NBR shows.

The public forecasts released over the last month indicate a worsening of Romania’s GDP outlooks. If in January, the majority of analysts were expecting the economic growth would return in the positive territory, the most recent studies indicate a GDP contraction of up to 7.1%.

Barclays bank said it expected the Romanian economy to sink 6% this year.

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