Erste analysts have thus worsened the budget deficit outlook for 2010, from previous estimates of 6.6%, according to cash method.
Erste has also revised its 2011 deficit forecasts, from 5.6% of GDP to 6.1%. In 2011, Romania should be able to contain the budget gap within the target range imposed by EU of 3%, in order to allow the country to access the euro area in 2014.
For 2009, the government and IMF have agreed on a deficit of 7.3%. Last year, the budget gap stood at 4.9% based on cash method or 5.5% according to ESA standards.
Of all the eight CEE countries under review (Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine), Romania will run the highest budget deficit over the next two years, Erste said.
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