Coface’s predictions are however more optimistic than EC’s, made public on Monday, which signals a mere 1.75% growth of Romanian economy this year, versus 7.8% a year earlier, nevertheless it will remain bellow 2.5% threshold.
Thus, Coface sees a reduction of exports down to 49.7 billion dollars this year, from 51.9 billion a year earlier, and a contraction of imports, from 72 billion dollars to 80.4 billion dollars a year ago.
The decline of foreign trade will fuel a decrease of current account deficit down to 10.5% of gross domestic product, from 13.3% of GDP in 2008.
Simultaneously, the budget deficit will drop to 2.1% of GDP, from 5.3% of GDP in 2008. However, Romania’s external debt will rise to 57.9 billion dollars in 2009, from 51.7 billion dollars last year.
The economic slowdown will also reduce this year’s inflation, down to 6.3% annual median, against 7.9% in 2008.
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