Saxo Bank said the leu is likely to fall to 4.84 against euro over the coming 12 months, should the aid deal with IMF be interrupted.
“Leu could fall to a record low of 4.84 against euro in the coming 12 months, should the implementation of the program agreed with International Monetary Fund is interrupted. The probability of aid program halt is 50%”, said Christian Blaabjerg, head of market research Saxo Bank.
At a one month horizon, Saxo Bank sees and exchange rate of 3.96lei/euro after which the leu could plummet to 4.1 lei/euro within three months.
But should Romania meet IMF conditionality and receive all tranches from the institution, the leu could strengthen to 3.6 versus euro at year-end, from current rate of 4.1lei/euro.
The national currency gained 0.02lei to 4.1180, as the dollar devaluation shifted investors’ attention to emerging markets.
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