Romania has bigger chances to avoid sliding into recession in 2009 than to confront it, but the evolution will depend on the international climate and the policy responses of the future government, which should take into account the worst case scenario, said the senior economist of World Bank in Romania, Catalin Pauna.

“It is hard to predict what will happen in the coming months in 2009, and the tolerance band is broad. Romania can have economic growth as well as it can face a full-blown recession, situation which depends very much on a set of factors from outside the country - which do not depend on us, but on the recession and on the evolution of Western Europe countries – and on the future government’s capacity to take a prompt action to battle the crisis,” said Pauna, quoted by NewsIn and CFA Romania awards event.

In these conditions, the anti-crisis policy response of the government should start from “the worst case scenario, the sharp fall of economy, and should include a coherent set of measures to be implemented given the materialization degree of these factors”, Pauna added.

All in all, he expects an economic recovery in the international markets, “as fast as the economic backdown and market collapse took place”.

He stressed that the core issue that all economies across the world are facing is the “mistrust between partners who refuse to engage into financial and commercial trades”.

Romania’s advantage in overcoming the effects of the crisis faster than other European states consist in the Romanian market’s flexibility set by the “liberal reforms, compared to European economy which is perceived as rigid.

Translated by Camelia Oancea

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