Mitroi (CFA): Sovereign borrowing costs would have been higher in default of an aid deal with IMF

Romania would have faced tough borrowing conditions and sovereign borrowing costs would have been 7% higher if it hadn’t taken the emergency loan package from the International Monetary Fund, said Adrian Mitroi, general secretary at CFA Romania.
“In default of an aid deal with the Fund, the sovereign credit default swaps would have increased and hence affected Romania’s borrowing capabilities”, said Mitroi.

The biggest fears now are on the possible risk of the depreciation of the single European currency versus its US counterpart and of spillover to the Romanian economy.

“The biggest peril for Romania is that the currency for exports (euro) is falling, while the currency for imports (dollar) is increasing. Our economy is heavily dependent on raw materials, including crude or natural gas, and the depreciation of the currency for exports (euro) outweighs our competitive edge”, Mitroi added.

“I don’t see the national currency heading towards 4.50 – 5 lei/euro, as some analysts predict”, the general secretary of CFA told NewsIn. “We have a managed floating regime and the national currency toils to keep exchange rates in check”. Mitroi didn’t rule out the possibility of a slight depreciation of the exchange rates that would stimulate exports.

However, the chairman of Brokers Association, Dan Paul said Wednesday he expects the leu to fall to 4.50-5 lei/euro by the end of the year. “As far as I am concerned, I think the leu is heading towards this rate, as it would help exporters”, said Dan Paul.

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