Citi expects EUR/RON rate at 4.10 by year-end

Citi has revised its forecasts on currency exchange rate for the end of the year, from 3.95 lei/euro to 4.10 lei/euro.

Nonetheless, analysts expect an appreciation of the local currency, but at a slower pace, according to a Citi report made public today.

The economists of the US-based financial group see the exchange rates at 4.15lei/euro in third quarter, and 4.10 lei/euro by year-end.

“Turning to the FX outlook, we are somewhat disappointed with the leu’s recent performance following the sizable IMF-EU-led package, which has raised the probability of a more orderly adjustment considerably”, reads the Citi report.

Citi anticipates the presence of significant risks and the possibility of a rise in political noise ahead of Presidential elections in November.

However, the leu-supportive factors, such as NBR’s active involvement in the FX market to contain excess volatility, the presence of a more credible macroeconomic framework and the ongoing strong external adjustment should offset these risks.

In its previous prognosis, Citi had expected the leu/euro exchange rate to stay in the range of 3.95 by year-end, in the context of more favorable macroeconomic framework due to IMF/EU-led financial package, and higher-than-expected external gap.

Central bank posted today a benchmark exchange rate of 4.2137 lei/euro, down slightly by 0.09% from yesterday’s rate.

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