At a first sight, the 100 pc rise in top 5 shares at Bucharest Stock Exchange may indicate that green shots of recovery are beginning to peep through. However, their performance reflects their individual situation and how they fare in recessionary times rather than the nation’s economic condition. Specialists interviewed by Wall-Street explain what signals do this bearish trend emit and how the stock market looks in the second half of the year.
In the first six months, we have seen a market-wide rise amid a dried up cash flow. The best performing index was BET-XT which gained 29.7% in first quarter, followed by financial index, with a 24.6% rise. Overall, the market climbed 5.1% which reflected in the performance of BET-C.
Of all the companies listed at BSE, top performing issuers gained 110 pc. Altur rose 158.28%, Zentiva - 132.39%, followed by narrow margin by Compa Sibiu, with 132.32% gain. Biofarm is up 114.20% year-to-date and Rompetrol Rafinare up 112percent.
Analysts say that the prior sharp depreciations could be a reason for the strong bullish trend, which anyway failed to recover the losses.
“Pharma stocks dropped by more than expected, this field being deemed as one of the recession-proof sectors at the stock market. Investors didn’t take this into consideration in that sell-off flurry, and now we’re witnessing a “hunt” for these shares, which lifts their price”, Adrian Duna, analyst at KD Capital Management told Wall-Street.
“Altur, Zentiva and Rompetrol (both Rafinare and Well Services) shares climbed due to the speculations on the compulsory public takeover offering to be carried by their major stockholders. At first, there were pure speculations, but afterwards, RNSC issued the Instruction 3/2009 under which the entities holding directly or indirectly more than 33% of the voting rights at a listed company shall conduct takeover offers. And three companies fall under this category”, said Paul Brendea, analyst at Prime Transaction.
“Moreover, Biofarm’s evolution is linked to the performance of financial investment companies, since Biofarm invested in FIC stocks (BSE:SIF)”, he added.
Pharma sector: from the takeover offer to defensive stocks
In the first quarter, the two pharmaceutical companies that recorded the best performances at BSE reported a good dynamic of results.
Zentiva Romania (BSE:SCD) increased profit in first quarter this year by 7% year-on-year to 6.13 million lei (1.44 million euros), while turnover climbed by one third.
In September, the Czech-based drug maker Zentiva, approved the takeover bid from France’s Sanofi-Aventis, for 1.8 bn euros, Sanofi said.
Biofarm drug maker (BSE: BIO) reported a net profit of 4.75 million lei (1.13 mn euros) in first quarter, up 6% year-on-year, while revenues advanced 22%.
“In case of pharmaceutical companies, the profitability is a major factor that contributed to its good performance at the stock market. The industry is profitable and has a high growth potential”, said Adrian Duna.
The performance of the pharmaceutical sector will largely depend on the H1 results. While the pharmaceutical sector has all the ingredients for a long-term play, utilities companies have a risk-free rate of return.
“FIC can also be the stocks of choice for the long-term. A more risky sector would be the financials, where problems may appear. But a higher-than-average risk returns higher-than-average profit potential”, KD’s analyst concluded.
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